Odds of healthcare reform passing

The special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat vacated when Senator Kennedy passed away, threatens to block healthcare reform.  It is looking increasingly likely that the GOP candidate will win, the race is basically a tossup.

If the GOP candidate wins, republicans would have 41 votes in the senate, enough to enact a filibuster, a stupid procedure that effectively requires a super majority rule.  There is always the so-called "nuclear option" which would attempt to end a filibuster on a majority vote.  This goes against the historical senate rules, however none of this, including the filibuster itself, is described in the Constitution.  Anything goes.

I am also a bit angry with the latest change to the final bill, which will exempt union members from a tax on "Cadillac" plans.  This is discriminatory and should not be in the final bill, but it seems it was necessary to cater to Big Labor to get the bill to pass.

Here's how I handicap it:

• 50% chance of Democrats keeping control of the senate.
• If they keep control, 95% chance that healthcare reform passes.
• 50% chance of the GOP winning in MA.  
• If this happens, 30% chance that it takes a longtime to seat the new senator, long enough that healthcare passes.
• 70% chance that the winner is seated soon enough that they can vote against healthcare, and in that case I'd give this bill a 5% chance of succeeding.

All in all, this leads to a 64.5% chance of healthcare reform passing.  Decent odds, but not great.

Republicans working toward one party rule - by democrats

This continues to be one of the best political stories of the year.  The Republican Party's civil war between Carl Rove / Rush Limbaugh and Colin Powell / Michael Steele / Tom Ridge.  

If the former wins, the party will be a completely regional party in the deep south, and you'll see one party rule by democrats for at least a decade.  If the more moderate contingent wins, it will be interesting to see how the religious conservatives handle it.

Either way, this is great news for the Obama administration.  

Specter a (D)

Arlen Specter, a long time Republican Senator from PA, is now a Democrat. I think it definitely makes sense for him politically. Outside of the (hick) deep south, there is very little room for republicans in national politics. He saw the writing on the wall, just as other GOPers have lately.

Also, there are a large amount of competition for his seat from the GOP. If he had won the primary, he'd surely win, but that wasn't something that would happen for sure. Specter is a big supporter of several of the President's policies.

Being a republican is getting to be a lonely prospect.

McCain is right

Not John, McCain, but his daughter. Speaking to the Log Cabin Republicans, she discusses how many Republican norms are not in line with the current and future generations. If the GOP wants to survive, it will need to change, beginning with social policies.

Today's GOP

It ain't pretty.

The end of Palin?

Sarah Palin has been disinvited from a major republican speaking event... as quickly as she came into the spotlight, she may very well fade away.  Thank god.

Michelle Bachman: Traitor

Congresswoman Michelle Bachman is a traitor to the United States of America.  She has recently spoken in favor of an "armed" revolution against the government because of the planned tax increases on energy.  These tax increases would be implemented through a cap and trade of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that is one of the main causes of global weirding, whose effects can be read about here.

Article 3, Section 3 of the Constitution of the United States of America: " Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. "

The Limbaugh Strategy

Rush Limbaugh is now the de facto leader of the Republican Party.  While Michael Steele may actually lead them, nobody is paying attention.  And independent minded voters like myself are not fans of Rush.  I think that if the GOP continues down this road, it may be 2024 before a Republican runs competitively again.

GOP Needs to Chill Out

The GOP is doing whatever it can be as partisan as ever. President Barack Obama has made overtures to the republicans in congress, including appointing them to his cabinet. Senator Gregg, a republican from New Hampshire, said yesterday:

"We need a robust [stimulus package]. I think the one that's pending is in the range we need. I do believe it's a good idea to do it at two levels, which this bill basically does, which is immediate stimulus and long-term initiatives which actually improve our competitiveness and our productivity."

That was yesterday. Today he withdrew his nomination, because it is clear the republicans will stop at nothing to fuck over President Obama. This is partisan politics at its worst.

Joe the Plumber is going to Israel

As they say, the truth is stranger than fiction; or at least funnier.  Joe* the plumber** is heading to Israel to report on the Gaza conflict.  His plan is to find the "average Joes" of Israel and talk to them about their problems.

Keep in mind, this is the guy who said that Obama's election would be "death to Israel", which, obviously was not very prescient since Israel is still alive and kicking, post-election.

*his name is sam

**he is not a plumber

The Party of Racial Backlash

Krugman has an interesting editorial today on the GOP's strategy for the past 40 years.  I agree with him that overall, the GOP has symbolized a "good ole boy" network, in which very few minorities were given top spots.  But Bush changed some of that with his appointments, although the party lost many of them under McCain (like Colin Powell).  

One thing that Krugman misses is the GOP's small government rhetoric, which was powerful for a time, even if it may partially be to blame for the current meltdown.

But will there be any filibusters?

Senator Chambliss has won re-election in Georgia, one of the few Republicans to win nationwide.  The Democrats will not have 60 senators this session, meaning they will not have enough to override a filibuster.  But will the GOP even try it?  

What are they going to filibuster, universal healthcare?  That would be the death of them if anything else.  64% of Americans favor it, 12% more than Obama's vote total.

So that filibuster is off the table.  What else is there?  Thoughts?

PJ's Manifesto

PJ O'Rourke, one of the best libertarian/conservative humorists of all time has written a great manifesto against the GOP, in only the way he could do it.  Recommended for all.

Romney will not lead the GOP in 2012

Despite what CNN may tell you, Mitt Romney will not lead the GOP.  Why?  Because the Republican Party is now the party for southern, white, elderly, Christians (and certain acceptable Jews for them like Joe Lieberman, sometimes.  Except he's a bit too "liberal" for them despite supporting Iraq and wanting to ban all violence from TV).

So, Mitt is rich, he's white, he's not young.  But he's not Southern.  That can probably be overcome, but his biggest problem is that he's not a Christian, he's a Mormon.  Now, to me, its all the same thing.  Jesus, Mohammamed, Yahweh, Brigham Young, whatever.  Same roots, same underlying religion.  But not to Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal.  Mitt might as well be a Buddhist monk to them.  And the same applies to the Republican Party's constituents, who are now mostly southern, white, elderly, Christians.

So long Mitt!

The Party of Intolerance

Paul Krugman has an interesting article on why the only members of the republican party left after this election will be the nutjobs.

I concur.  No sane individual could call themselves a republican with Sarah Palin at the helm.  

GOP should put money where it will help

David Frum, of the conservative American Enterprise Institute, argues that the GOP should give up on McCain for now and shift resources to protecting republican senate seats.  I think he's right; when you have limited resources you need to put your money where it will be most effective.  Right now, even though McCain as president would be very effective, the likelihood of it happening is 5-10% at best, while maintaining some of these highly contested senate seats has at least 50-50 odds.

The GOP's War on Intelligence

With the choice of Sarah Palin for VP, McCain has once again led the republicans down the road of the lowest common denominator.  Some have remarked that Palin is as experienced as Obama.  Not so.  Obama's experience includes things like being the president of the Harvard Law Review, community organizing in a city with a population greater than Alaska, and many years in legislatures.  Palin was the mayor of a town of 7,000 people before being elected the governor.

McCain is not a smart man either.  Mitt Romney is a smart man.  Ron Paul is a smart man.  The republicans could have gone with someone who had above average intelligence, but with  the choice of McCain and his choice of Palin, its going to be another Bush Whitehouse, without the shrewd, evil intelligence of a Dick Cheney.

So now we get John McCain who is an intellectual lightweight, and Sarah Palin, who has basically declared an all-out "war on science" whether it be teaching creationism in a public school or banning stem cell research.  Our allies, of course, think we are a joke for this.  In Israel, which is an ally and a pretty religious/conservative the only people who still believe the nonsense of creation are the Muslim countries that surround it and occasionally show up to a conference.  

The bible should not be used for guiding social policy any more than Stephen King's The Stand should be used for disaster preparedness.  

We need a president who is actually smart.  Bill Clinton was a smart guy.  Al Gore would have been a smart president too.  When you have leaders who are hostile to the flow of information, you run many risks.  Your world standing suffers a blow, children in school do not have a good role model to look up to, and many dangerous decisions can be made from a failure to understand the facts.

Hurricane Gustav could spoil the GOP's parade

Hurricane gustav could potentially hit New Orleans on Monday, the same day that Bush speaks to the GOP convention.  I hope that it doesn't hit that town (I'm going there in January), but if it does, that would truly derail the republicans convention, especially if the levees break again.  And all under the watch of Piyush "Bobby" Jindal.  

The RNC and a pro-choice VP

This is why I despite the Republican Party.

They are telling John McCain that he better not do anything maverick-like and pick a pro-choice running mate, like Tom Ridge or Joe "Vinega" Lieberman.  

Abortion is an emotional issue, but to most of us it has absolutely no impact on our lives.  Who cares what the vice-president thinks about an issue that's been decided 30 years ago.  This is simply how the republicans play around with the religious nuts.  Maybe McCain will show some backbone and pick a pro-choice candidate anyway.

On the democratic side, Barack Obama could choose someone like Tim Kaine, who is morally opposed to abortion.  

The republicans used to say that they were the "party for everyone" but lately it seems that territory has been taken over by the democrats.

Cheney, Bush, and his sequel to appear at convention

Like three peas in a pod, George W. Bush, John McCain, and Dick Cheney will all be at the GOP convention.  Bush and Cheney will give speeches to acknowledge how McCain will continue their legacies over the next 4 years.