Apply tech to politics

Here are two interesting websites that can help you figure out what's going on, both courtesy of Slate:

 

The first is a virtual "market" that allows you to trade the various candidates.  Higher prices indicate a higher likelihood of them winning.  While Hillary's stock is up, its only about 1/4 the value of Obama's.

http://specials.slate.com/futures/2008/presidential/

 

The other is a tool to show you how mathematically impossible it is for Hillary to win:

http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

 

 

Last night's results

Clinton won: OH, TX (primary), and RI.

Obama won: VT and possibly the TX caucuses.

In general, she won the blue collar vote, the women, and the seniors.  He won college educated, younger people.  Race seems to have played a factor in Ohio, especially in the rural areas.

Clinton will gain 10-20 delegates but since she had trailed by over 100 prior to this mini Super Tuesday she would need large victories in the remaining states.  By my estimation, she will need to win each state on average 60%-40%, a very tough task.

If she cannot do this, Obama will end up with the lead in delegates going into the convention and I predict whoever has the lead at that point will win the nomination.

Election results part 2

Hillary really whipped Obama in Ohio as far as the popular vote goes, but it looks like a wash for the delegate counter when you factor in Texas, Vermont, and Rhode Island.

I think tomorrow Clinton will be bragging about winning OH and possibly TX, but Obama will still be far ahead in the delegate count.

Cato is an organization I have supported in the past, a Libertarian thinktank.  They have an interesting article on why libertarians might want to support Obama, that you can find here.

Their bottom line is that if your main issues are: Iraq withdraw, civil liberties, taking religion out of government, and reducing enforcement of victimless crimes you should vote for him.  

The economics stance and the gun stance still bother me, but I think that the chances of him getting those types of things passed are close to nil.  The Supreme Court will rule on the 2nd amendment this summer, which will either restrict our gun rights or enforce them, which means that either way the president's position won't matter.

VT, RI, OH, and TX

Big news tonight: 

McCain locks up his nomination.  By far the worst Republican candidate of my lifetime thus far.  I'll vote for Obama (if he's nominated) just to make sure McCain loses.

Mike Huckabee is out.  No big loss.  I'd never have voted for someone as ignorant on him.  He would probably cut NASA to fund an expedition to find Noah's Ark.

More later as the democrat race pans out.  So far it doesn't seem that anyone won much.  Obama's huge victory in Vermont should cancel out Clinton's smaller victory in RI.

Good news for Lions fans

Brett Favre has now retired.

He hung on for a while, beating our team twice a year many, many times over. Hopefully Aaron Rodgers at QB = 2 easy wins for the Lions next year.

Is Global Warming Over?

Some people certainly think so.

My thoughts have always been that the temperatures fluctuate in cycles. We've had "little ice ages", "medieval warm periods", and right now we are just a bit warmer than average. I guess we'll see if this trend holds up.

Now, there's nothing wrong with cars that get better mileage, since that ultimately saves people money. But to say its good for the environment is dubious at best.

Social Engineering a Restaurant

I eat out often.  Probably about average for Americans, but in general I eat out at a sit-down restaurant at least once a week.  I also like to get a good deal, since restaurants have a huge markup on most food and especially drinks.

If nothing is done wrong for your meal, than you are an asshole for asking the manager for a discount, though it is very possible.  Here are certain situations where you can normally get a discount if you speak up.

1. You are billed for something you did not order.

2. There is more than a 5 minute gap between your food arriving and the rest of your party's food arriving.

3. Food is too cold or otherwise prepared incorrectly (well-done when you ordered medium rare).

4. Service takes much too long in general.

Once you've made up your mind that something has not been done to your satisfaction, here is what you need to do:

1. Tell the waitress you want to speak to the manager.  I have never had them tell me that he was busy or not available.

2. When the manager arrives, remain calm.

3. Tell him exactly what happened, and ask if there's anything he can do to help.

Its that simple.  After completing these steps, I've gotten free desserts, $50 gift cards, free meals, free drinks, etc.

Restaurants that are most vulnerable to this technique (and most likely to screw up) are those that have shared service.  Shared service is when a team serves you and you don't have a dedicated server.  So the person who takes your order does not necessarily serve your food.  You ask one person for a beer, another brings it out.  Lots of room to mess up.  

So speak up, and get a discount.

Consumer Reports Misses the Mark

Consumer Reports has ranked my truck, the FJ Cruiser, as the sixth worst car this year.  I want to address their summary as well as tell you why Consumer Reports is bullshit.  I am not just writing this entry because they dissed my car, I am very skeptical of their rating methodologies.  

Consumer Reports used to report mainly on quality/reliability.  Interestingly enough, they say that reliability does not factor into their ratings.  Say what?  So if a car is a complete piece of shit, they may still rate the car highly.  Is that helpful to consumers?  

I also noted two glaring issues with their rating of the FJ.  The first is that they claim it requires premium fuel.  This is not true: Toyota recommends premium fuel for optimal performance but says that anything 87 octane or above is fine.  Secondly they say that access is limited.  What we are talking about is a compact SUV that is good enough to have 2 suicide doors.  It works well to have an extra person or two in the back, and an adult will fit comfortably back there, but its not a minivan nor is it intended to be.

I noticed that most of the "worst cars" are SUVs, as well as one of the most popular cars around, the Toyota Yaris.  Maybe Consumer Reports has just lost its relevance.

Also, if you want the most up to date quality ratings, I recommend you visit True Delta: www.truedelta.com

Leapday

Today is February 29, a day that comes only 4 years (and every 8 around at certain times).

The reason we have a leap-year is that a year is really about 365 days, 5 hours, and several minutes long.  These extra hours add up and we need to compensate for it every 4 years by adding another date.  But if we always did that, we would compensate just a bit too much, so if a year ends in 00 it will NOT have a leap day UNLESS it is divisible by 400 (an example is the year 2000).

It would be interesting to be born on February 29.  Your birthday comes only every 4 years.  In Commonwealth Countries (such as the UK), on non-leap years your birthday is technically February 28, but in the USA they probably wouldn't let a 21 year old drink until March 1.  Looking at the list of famous people whose birthday is February 29, not too many come up.  Ja Rule turns 28 today.

Interestingly, on Apple's iCal calendar application, if I create an event on February 29 and tell it to repeat the event yearly, it does not show up again until 2012.

Still, the day usually only comes once every 1461 days so it is unique in its own way.  For example, it is the one day in which it is considered acceptable for women to propose marriage to men.

So, have a happy leap day, and we'll revisit this subject in another 4 years.

The Death of the CD

I've been predicting the end of CD's for a while.  Today's retailer news confirms that the CD is indeed dying.  Apple's iTunes music store has pulled ahead of Best Buy to take the #2 stop in music sales.  

Who is #1?  None other than the giant behemoth Wal-Mart.  

NPD predicts iTunes will be #1 very soon.  CD's will not go away right this minute, but within 5 years, buying a music CD could be like buying a cassette video tape these days.  

Already, computers are shipping with no CD/DVD drive.  The DVD is not immune to the death of the CD.  Music was ahead of movies in converting to an optical disc format, so I think that Blu-Ray will hang on for a bit longer.  But within 2-3 years, iTunes could very well be the #1 seller of videos too.  

Is this good news for consumers?  Of course it is.  iTunes now sells music with no digital rights management, the shit that prevents you from copying a song more than a certain number of times.  You can now buy a song and copy it as many times as you want.  Since each song costs only 99 cents, there's not much worry on having someone copy it and give it out to people.  

I use the CD player in my car to play MP3 CD's.  Most of these songs were downloaded in one way or another.  I also have iPod integration in my car, and anyone with a radio can do this as well.

1. Buy an iPod

2. Buy an "FM transmitter"

3. Download/buy music online

4. Put onto your iPod

5. Take your iPod with you in your car, listen to your music on whatever station you choose.

Almost Obsolete

With today's surprise announcement of new Macbook and Macbook Pro models, my Macbook is almost obsolete.  The only reason it's not quite there yet is that the base Macbook model is not as fast as mine nor does it have a DVD burner.  However, you could effectively get a computer that's better than mine for $200 less than what I paid.  Such is the price of loving technology.

$1.2B down the drain

The fact that we have an aircraft that costs $1.2 billion is bad enough.  

The fact that it can't stay in the air makes it even worse.  At least the pilots survived, unlike the poor fucks who are lucky enough to fly in the Osprey.

Lunar Eclipse 2008

I spent a bit of tonight watching the lunar eclipse unfold.  It was a good sight, and the last total lunar eclipse that anyone will see until 2010.

The next total solar eclipse in the US is in 2017.

Castro's Done. Castro takes over.

Today Fidel Castro announced that he is resigning as president (dictator) of Cuba.

Ruling his island with an iron-first for almost half a century, we can thank Castro for Tony Montana and a lack of vacation and cigar choices.  

Here's to the future hope that we American's can chill out in one of Havana's nice beaches, drink a mojito, and smoke a Cohiba. 

Too bad Raul Castro, Fidel's Younger, asshole brother, is taking over.

Congrats Newman

Congratulations to Ryan Newman, my favorite driver for winning the 50th Daytona 500!  Way to go!