2010-05-27
iPad magazine pricing out of touch
Wired is reporting that its iPad app sold 24,000 copies in 24 hours. While I don't doubt this figure, I do think that the pricing for their online magazine is absurd. They point out that at $5 each, it is the same price as the print version at a newsstand. That is true, however a subscriber gets the same thing for $1 delivered to their house. Given that the edition at your house can easily be lent to your friends, read in the bathroom, or used to start a fire, there's a lot more usefulness than a digital copy. Wired needs to price this app at $1 to match their subscription price.
2010-05-13
RIG's liability
A new development today in the Deepwater Horizon disaster. Transocean, LTD (RIG) is claiming that 159 year old law will greatly reduce its liability.
I don't have much confidence in their ability to evade lawsuits. All it takes is one safety regulation not being followed for them to face full liability, which is like to be substantial. Consider that the rig that blew up was owned and operated not by BP, but by Transocean.
I don't have much confidence in their ability to evade lawsuits. All it takes is one safety regulation not being followed for them to face full liability, which is like to be substantial. Consider that the rig that blew up was owned and operated not by BP, but by Transocean.
2010-05-10
Kagan for SCOTUS
I don't know what to think of the current Supreme Court pick, Elena Kagan. On one hand, she's described as a good defender of the first amendment. On the other hand, her support of the Executive Branch and police powers is troubling. And on the interesting side, there are rumors she might be gay.
This could be an interesting confirmation, considering that the democrats cannot overcome a republican filibuster.
This could be an interesting confirmation, considering that the democrats cannot overcome a republican filibuster.
2010-05-06
Dow drops 1k and regains most - WOW
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by almost 1,000 points. People are calling this a "computer glitch" but the truth is nobody knows what happened yet. It is likely that the initial panic was from investors were very nervous about the situation in Greece.
Some background on Greece. What is most likely the most fucked up member of the EU voted today on an "austerity plan." Basically this is a plan to cut government spending by a large amount including wage cuts to government workers. Suffice it to say, it didn't go down well among the common folk who decided to stage violent riots. And on top of this, the house of cards that is the EU is still to drop (Spain, Portugal, and Italy are next).
So investors are worried about this, and its likely that some stock crossed a threshold that triggered automatic selling. I heard in at least one source that some trader at Citi entered an order for a billion instead of a million. That stock would likely be Proctor and Gamble. It appears that the system worked correctly, and that the fast paced electronic trading was halted on the NYSE, allowing sensible selling to resume.
Since PG is a component of the Dow, the entire market went into a freefall. My entire portfolio, consisting of autos, banks, oil ETF's and retailers was down 10%. With the comeback I ended down a reasonable 4% but that was a scary day.
From what I gather the market worked exactly as it should have. The safety systems kicked in and ending down 4% is nothing bad. There are those who will argue that situations like these mean we need more government regulation. This is wrong.
Some background on Greece. What is most likely the most fucked up member of the EU voted today on an "austerity plan." Basically this is a plan to cut government spending by a large amount including wage cuts to government workers. Suffice it to say, it didn't go down well among the common folk who decided to stage violent riots. And on top of this, the house of cards that is the EU is still to drop (Spain, Portugal, and Italy are next).
So investors are worried about this, and its likely that some stock crossed a threshold that triggered automatic selling. I heard in at least one source that some trader at Citi entered an order for a billion instead of a million. That stock would likely be Proctor and Gamble. It appears that the system worked correctly, and that the fast paced electronic trading was halted on the NYSE, allowing sensible selling to resume.
Since PG is a component of the Dow, the entire market went into a freefall. My entire portfolio, consisting of autos, banks, oil ETF's and retailers was down 10%. With the comeback I ended down a reasonable 4% but that was a scary day.
From what I gather the market worked exactly as it should have. The safety systems kicked in and ending down 4% is nothing bad. There are those who will argue that situations like these mean we need more government regulation. This is wrong.
2010-05-03
Why is BP solely responsible?
The massive oil spill off the cost of Louisiana is likely going to cost tens of billions of dollars to cleanup. For some reason, the US government has said that BP is solely responsible for the cost of cleanup. Why?
A large company called Transocean (ticker: RIG) actually owns and operates Deepwater Horizon. BP has laid the blame on them (while promising to take all responsibility). I think at the end of the day, RIG has a higher likelihood of going down over this incident. While the US government may be blaming BP for everything, RIG will likely be named in a number of lawsuits over this disaster.
Also, to all of you who supported the Palin/McCain ticket, how's the mantra of "Drill baby drill" feel now?
A large company called Transocean (ticker: RIG) actually owns and operates Deepwater Horizon. BP has laid the blame on them (while promising to take all responsibility). I think at the end of the day, RIG has a higher likelihood of going down over this incident. While the US government may be blaming BP for everything, RIG will likely be named in a number of lawsuits over this disaster.
Also, to all of you who supported the Palin/McCain ticket, how's the mantra of "Drill baby drill" feel now?
2010-04-29
HP makes a smart move in buying Palm
Yesterday HP announced that it was buying Palm for $1.2B, a 28% premium over the current (volatile) Palm stock price, which has ranged from around $3 to $18 a share in the past year.
HP immediately makes itself hugely competitive in both the smartphone and tablet/slate markets with this acquisition. Up until this point, HP has been mainly silent on smartphones. They used to have a decent PDA product, but not in the past 8-9 years. The Palm Pre and Pixi are not perfect but they represent a viable competitor to the other smartphones. Additionally, as Apple has shown, smartphone OS's can work on tablets too. And webOS is already able to multi-task. It does need more apps and some other features, but it is probably only a year away from working as a slate OS.
HP immediately makes itself hugely competitive in both the smartphone and tablet/slate markets with this acquisition. Up until this point, HP has been mainly silent on smartphones. They used to have a decent PDA product, but not in the past 8-9 years. The Palm Pre and Pixi are not perfect but they represent a viable competitor to the other smartphones. Additionally, as Apple has shown, smartphone OS's can work on tablets too. And webOS is already able to multi-task. It does need more apps and some other features, but it is probably only a year away from working as a slate OS.
2010-04-26
Apple Strikes Back
Maybe not Apple directly but you know they likely pushed forward with this investigation, which has now led to a hardcore search on the Gizmodo editor's house. The police even nabbed all of his digital media and files. Hopefully he's backed them up on the cloud...
All of this for posting photos and a writeup of a new iPhone that they found in a bar.
All of this for posting photos and a writeup of a new iPhone that they found in a bar.
2010-04-22
Nu-Salt must be happy
Salt is quite the condiment. There has even been a great book written on its history. Now the FDA wants to limit it.
So what exactly are they trying to ban? Sodium chloride, or NaCl which has been used as a food preservative and flavor enhancer for thousands of years. Empires have been built on salt and it is even the basis for the word "salary". Sodium, a necessary electrolyte, contributes to hypertension and other disorders in high quantities. Most Americans eat too much of it.
If sodium levels are reduced, I would assume that most vendors would switch to potassium chloride, KCl, which tastes almost identical to the sodium varietal. Nu-Salt has been around for a long time with this formulation.
The only downside I can see is from a marketing standpoint. KCl is one of the ingredients used in the lethal injection cocktail... but that's only when it is injected. Still, this may worry some people.
So what exactly are they trying to ban? Sodium chloride, or NaCl which has been used as a food preservative and flavor enhancer for thousands of years. Empires have been built on salt and it is even the basis for the word "salary". Sodium, a necessary electrolyte, contributes to hypertension and other disorders in high quantities. Most Americans eat too much of it.
If sodium levels are reduced, I would assume that most vendors would switch to potassium chloride, KCl, which tastes almost identical to the sodium varietal. Nu-Salt has been around for a long time with this formulation.
The only downside I can see is from a marketing standpoint. KCl is one of the ingredients used in the lethal injection cocktail... but that's only when it is injected. Still, this may worry some people.
2010-04-20
2010-04-14
Apollo Astronauts Square Off
Buzz Aldrin and Neil Armstrong have wildly differing takes on the President's plan to cut manned space exploration for the time being. I agree with Buzz. Focusing on making it cheaper to get to space, via public/private partnerships is likely the best way to get the ball rolling. Let's face it: the Space Shuttle program was a white elephant, and Constellation didn't look any better.
2010-04-08
Nuclear Posture Review 2010
The Bulletin is calling the Nuclear Posture Review a "genuine accomplishment." I agree, this could be a milestone in foreign relations. The Obama Administration has said what most Americans have hoped for years: that nuclear weapons are to be used in only the rarest of circumstances, and that we should use our resources to stop proliferation.
Review: The Big Short
The Big Short is a very interesting book written about the financial meltdown of 2007-2008. The perspective is perhaps the freshest part: as the name implies it is written from the point of view of those who saw it coming: the shorts. There were at least several groups of people with the foresight to predict this disaster, and as you'd imagine, they made a lot of money when it crashed.
One item I can't get over after reading this book is how Moody's, S&P, and Fitch escaped without going under. These are the bond rating agencies that basically said a pile of horseshit was gold. This allowed countless municipalities and retirement funds to invest in securities that were definitely below investment grade. Lewis has an especially low opinion of the rating agencies, basically saying that Moody's employs the kids who rode the short bus to school. What the ratings agencies did do was likely negligent, but only time will tell if they are held accountable.
I also think for someone not well-versed with the situation, this book may be a good primer on what happened. That is, if you don't know the difference between a CDO and a CDS, you probably will after reading this book.
5/5 stars.
One item I can't get over after reading this book is how Moody's, S&P, and Fitch escaped without going under. These are the bond rating agencies that basically said a pile of horseshit was gold. This allowed countless municipalities and retirement funds to invest in securities that were definitely below investment grade. Lewis has an especially low opinion of the rating agencies, basically saying that Moody's employs the kids who rode the short bus to school. What the ratings agencies did do was likely negligent, but only time will tell if they are held accountable.
I also think for someone not well-versed with the situation, this book may be a good primer on what happened. That is, if you don't know the difference between a CDO and a CDS, you probably will after reading this book.
5/5 stars.
2010-04-03
iPad hands on
I went to the Apple store today and played with the iPad. I came away more impressed than before, but still have some reservations.
The screen is great and the device is extremely fast. I noticed very little lag in loading apps (other than a 3D game) and the interface was very snappy. But as many have said, it is just a big iPhone.
Using it as a book reader doesn't seem practical to me, the screen is just way too bright.
Typing on the device is truly awful. I generally can type at over 140 WPM but with this device I'd be lucky to get 30 accurate words out. It is that bad. And I don't think it is the lack of tactile response, it just doesn't recognize fast typing. It does its best to autocorrect, but I found this did not solve the problem.
I would not buy an iPad now, but version 2 will hopefully improve on some of the above issues. The biggest problem for me is the lack of good input device. I don't care if they offer office type apps for this, they are unusable with the current interface.
But if all you want to do is go online, then the iPad could be a good choice, but the price will likely come down soon.
The screen is great and the device is extremely fast. I noticed very little lag in loading apps (other than a 3D game) and the interface was very snappy. But as many have said, it is just a big iPhone.
Using it as a book reader doesn't seem practical to me, the screen is just way too bright.
Typing on the device is truly awful. I generally can type at over 140 WPM but with this device I'd be lucky to get 30 accurate words out. It is that bad. And I don't think it is the lack of tactile response, it just doesn't recognize fast typing. It does its best to autocorrect, but I found this did not solve the problem.
I would not buy an iPad now, but version 2 will hopefully improve on some of the above issues. The biggest problem for me is the lack of good input device. I don't care if they offer office type apps for this, they are unusable with the current interface.
But if all you want to do is go online, then the iPad could be a good choice, but the price will likely come down soon.
2010-03-31
Do not buy a house in the next 30 days
If you are in the market for a house, you might want to take a break for the next 30 days or so. Why? The first time homebuyer credit, which will give most people $8,000 for buying a house, is due to expire on April 30. There is also a smaller credit of $6,500 for those who are repeat buyers.
Technically you don't have to own the house by April 30, you just need to be under contract. The contact will still need to be closed by June 30 though. While there has likely been a run-up in prices over the last several months due to this credit, with 30 days to go you can bet people are feeling antsy. Many homebuyers are counting on this $8,000 to buy new furniture, pay back relatives loaning them a down payment, etc.
So you can expect a flood of buyers this month, especially since you can bet the National Association of Realtors will blitz the airwaves. With the pressure on, people are more likely to get into bidding wars, just to make sure that that contract is signed by the end of the month. But with average home prices close to 200k, even paying as little as 4% extra (or allowing a deal to go through without a 4% seller subsidy) will wipe out that $8,000.
For those of you who are able to wait a few extra days, and forgo the cash, you will likely find a decent buyer's market. $8,000 is equivalent to $40,000 of house value, if you figure a 20% down payment. I'm not saying prices are going down by $40,000, but the average will likely be north of $8,000; representing significant savings. Additionally, with many buyers likely dropping out within the next 30 days, supply will probably continue to outpace demand.
Technically you don't have to own the house by April 30, you just need to be under contract. The contact will still need to be closed by June 30 though. While there has likely been a run-up in prices over the last several months due to this credit, with 30 days to go you can bet people are feeling antsy. Many homebuyers are counting on this $8,000 to buy new furniture, pay back relatives loaning them a down payment, etc.
So you can expect a flood of buyers this month, especially since you can bet the National Association of Realtors will blitz the airwaves. With the pressure on, people are more likely to get into bidding wars, just to make sure that that contract is signed by the end of the month. But with average home prices close to 200k, even paying as little as 4% extra (or allowing a deal to go through without a 4% seller subsidy) will wipe out that $8,000.
For those of you who are able to wait a few extra days, and forgo the cash, you will likely find a decent buyer's market. $8,000 is equivalent to $40,000 of house value, if you figure a 20% down payment. I'm not saying prices are going down by $40,000, but the average will likely be north of $8,000; representing significant savings. Additionally, with many buyers likely dropping out within the next 30 days, supply will probably continue to outpace demand.
iPad reviews trickling in
The two big names in tech reviews, Walt Mossberg and David Pogue have reviews up here and here for the iPad. The verdict seems to be lukewarm acceptance. Neither of them are going to go Steve Jobs on us and call it "magical" but they both seem to see more positives than negatives for this polarizing device.
And maybe that's what Apple wants. If public perception is indeed very polarizing, it could be a home run. Better to have 50% of your audience love it, and 50% hate it, than for 90% to say "so what."
The official launch is April 3, but good luck getting one. It is likely going to be like the iPhone, with people paying hundreds more than list price to be the first dork on the street seen with the device. The only thing I can see that will hold back wider acceptance is that most people won't see one in the wild. With an iPhone, people would have them on their belts, in their hands, out in public. I don't see many people toting around the iPad conspicuously outside of a coffee house.
And maybe that's what Apple wants. If public perception is indeed very polarizing, it could be a home run. Better to have 50% of your audience love it, and 50% hate it, than for 90% to say "so what."
The official launch is April 3, but good luck getting one. It is likely going to be like the iPhone, with people paying hundreds more than list price to be the first dork on the street seen with the device. The only thing I can see that will hold back wider acceptance is that most people won't see one in the wild. With an iPhone, people would have them on their belts, in their hands, out in public. I don't see many people toting around the iPad conspicuously outside of a coffee house.
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