Clunker redux

An interesting take on cash for clunkers. I agree with the basic premise that it is not possible to generate value by destroying a working asset.

However in this case, a car may have been worth more as scrap that on the road, so that may not be true. Still, I fear that this was a case of the neither the auto manufacturers, dealers, or even the public getting bailed out.

Georgia-Russia redux

The EU's report on the Georgian/Russian conflict from last year has just been released. The Swiss who wrote the report has concluded that Georgia started the conflict, however there are always grey areas in war. It is nearly impossible to know if Russia had intentions of invading, or if their somewhat aggressive actions leading up to the war had something to do with it. However, it is now recognized that Georgia was the main initial aggressor.

Good thing we didn't let them into NATO.

Evidence supports ban on lead ammo

As a former NRA member, I'm probably going to really piss off some current ones with this entry, but you can't fight facts: lead ammo needs to be banned in hunting application. A new study has shown that game meat contains a large amount of lead, so much that children and pregnant women should not be eating venison. What needs to be done is ban lead in ammo that is generally used outdoors for hunting. I think for now it is not necessary to ban lead ammo in handguns and in target rifles. But we need to protect the environment; lead is too dangerous let it get in anyone's food supply.

Lions Win!

I was one of the few, lucky Detroit Lions fans who was able to watch the game live, since I live in the DC area. I have to say, I'm glad I watched it, after 19 straight losses, this felt like the Super Bowl.

Of course, the DC media is already saying how they let the Lions win. While the Redskins aren't a great team, we did see some spark from the Lions, especially QB Matt Stafford.

Here's to hoping for at least one more W in 2009.

Ending Medical Privacy

There is a very interesting mini-article in Wired about how medical privacy works against our own good. While skeptical at first, the more I reflect on this issue, the more I agree.

Basically, right now it is very tough for you to get a copy of even your own medical history. It is all paper based, there are a myriad of laws that restrict its dissemination. In the 21st century, a lot of doctors, dentists, and other medical professionals still use paper.

What if your doctor's office burns to the ground? Of course, it would all be lost. This is why we need electronic records; the only place you are likely to find those right now are the VA hospitals, which incidentally provide some of the best care in the country.

Anyway, the benefits to this would be more openness in the medical community. Imagine how much quicker the Vioxx correlation with heart disease would have been found if everyone's records were in a big database. Very quickly, algorithms would see that many patients on Vioxx would dying of similar causes. This could be very helpful in seeing how safety plays out in the real world. It would also provide a lot of data for tracking how diseases spread, and also may help finding causation for other issues. For example, a cluster of cancer within a neighborhood, or within a county, possibly due to pollution.

I think the benefits far outweigh the risks, which is of course, a large reduction in privacy. Then again, it is easy enough to separate names from the data.

Housing crisis far from over

As of August, more mortgages are delinquent than ever. While the first wave hit and hit hard, the second, possibly even bigger foreclosure crisis is on its way.

Let's walk through the history of this mess.

From around 2004-2006 a lot of people got mortgages who shouldn't have. This includes all of the crazy "exotic" mortgage loans that reset after 1-3 years and ended up doubling homeowners' monthly payments, making them unable to buy the property. Most of these foreclosures are in the system now, getting flushed out. For the past year, I'd venture that this group makes up the majority of foreclosed properties.

But we should not forget the economic crisis that has emerged in September 2008. From Lehman to Circuit City, big names went down in all sectors leaving a lot of unemployed people. Worse yet, most new construction stopped, leaving contractors without jobs. Many of these people were not part of the first group; but they have been on unemployment for most of 2009. These are the everyday people, of whom many were NOT sub-prime to begin with, who are now facing foreclosure.

I think that we could easily see prices fall another 20-30% in certain areas, such as LA, Phoenix, Las Vegas, DC, and Florida.

We'll know the full extent by the middle of 2010, but don't believe for a second that buying right now will get you the best deal.

Census worker hanged

Yet another sign that terrorism can be domestic, a census worker was hanged and the words "fed" put on his body. This happened in Kentucky.

We can only assume that this is some type of anti-government terrorism, likely (but not certainly) perpetuated by someone on the right. It will be interesting to see what the leader of the loonies, Glenn Beck says about this. Those on the left are already blaming him for what happened. While I disagree, everyone is responsible for their own actions, Beck himself is quite crazy and may lead some people over the edge.

China is moving ahead on climate change

What are we doing? We're stuck debating healthcare, at a time when democrats have full control of the government. Just pass something and turn us into Switzerland. We'll live longer and spend less.

Now let's move onto climate change. Regardless of whether you believe that climate change is caused mostly by us or not (I do), consider this: oil will run out sooner or later, it is dirty on many levels, and there's a lot of money to be made coming up with technology to replace it. Would you rather have that tech developed in China or here? Here you say? Well, the only way to get that done is to pass massive taxes that will make energy so expensive in the US that it will be profitable to create version 1.0 of this technology.

Net Neutrality

The Obama Administration's FCC has just setup a website in which it comes out in favor of net neutrality. Net neutrality basically says that an internet service provider cannot limit bandwidth depending on what it is (e.g. video downloads cannot be slower than text). ISP's argue that some of these forms of information should be limited, since a free for all would make it slower for all users.

This may be one case of the government undoing a wrong that it has created. Normally I would be all for a free market, which in this case would be to argue that the ISP's have the right to limit traffic on their network. However in this case the ISP's are not a free market; generally you are limited to 1 or 2 choices of who will provide your broadband. In my condo, I am limited to Cox Communications and Verizon DSL (not even FIOS). So this is a monopoly or duopoly situation, usually setup by some local government.

The thought was, if the government gave someone a stranglehold on the market, that would entice the provider to divvy up cash to build the network. They were mostly right. So since the government basically gave these ISP's entire swaths of the country, I think it makes sense that the government can tell them what to do with it. And given how slow the US broadband is compared to the rest of the world, I think that net neutrality makes sense at the moment.

Clove cigarettes now illegal, rebranded as legal cigar

Today clove cigarettes, kreteks, were made illegal thanks for our friends at the FDA.

However, the largest kretek manufacturer is now going to sell them as cigars, which is permitted under the new legislation: cigars are exempt from these regulations.

What this means, is that they will come in a pack of 12 instead of 20 and will likely be bit thicker.

Confederacy and States' Rights

I'm a proponent of some states' rights, but one thing that has always gotten on my nerve is that a lot of people who are for states' rights wave the Confederate Battle Flag in some kind of historical lovefest.

Reading this makes me feel a bit better, seems that the CSA was not much of a "limited government" and was actually worse than the North when it comes to liberty (though this should be pretty obvious since they enslaved over half their population).

Interesting ruling from the courts

Apparently you cannot be sued for accessing internal company data with the intent to start your own business. Seems very strange, and given that we have 2 appeals courts who conflict with each other I bet SCOTUS will take a look.

Hot Sauces

It is no secret I am a big fan of hot sauces. I pile on Tabasco, Sriracha, and others. Even the Tabasco habenero sauce is not too much for me to pile on food.

I just had a sauce that even I think is a bit extreme. I went to Firehouse subs today, and they have a range of hot sauces. I grabbed the one in the highest possible category. It is called 357 Mad Dog and you better believe it is the hottest stuff I've had. For about 20 minutes after I ate it, it kept coming back in waves, burning my throat and making me feel like I was going to vomit.

My stomach still hurts 4 hours later.

I'll probably try it again.

What will happen when the housing credit expires?

Today fed chairman Ben Bernanke said that the recession is over.  That's likely true for most production work, and I'd bet that employment will start going up within a few months.  However, the second wave of the housing crises will probably be in full swing by early next year.

For those of you who are not aware, there is currently an $8,000 no strings attached credit for new buyers of homes.  The credit is available to any buyer within 6-8 weeks of the purchase.  While we can leave the short term merits of this policy to another discussion, one thing is for sure: it is likely that a good deal of houses being bought now are partially financed by this credit.  Using this credit as a down payment of sorts, someone's monthly payments will probably only go down by a hundred bucks, if that.  However most buyers likely using this credit to furnish a new house, or just blow it on other things.  Regardless, it is one thing that definitely motivates people to buy a house.  I know this, because I planned on using it before I abandoned my home search several months ago.

The housing credit is set to expire on Dec 1.  If this is not renewed, it means that people will need to be under contract by mid-October to safely get it (all contract contingencies aside).  

So what happens if this credit is allowed to expire (which I think it should)?  For most buyers, it will mean that they will either stop looking, or start looking at cheaper houses.  For sellers, it means that their house is at least priced about $8,000 too much, but likely much more, since buyers are probably not using this credit as a down payment.  At any rate, there is going to be a rush to buy every house on the market within the next month, and then housing activity is likely to drop substantially.  Will this induce congress to introduce an even larger tax credit next year?  Maybe $15,000?  We shall see.

Lions first loss of 2009

Coming off the first 0-16 season in NFL history, in their first game of 2009 the Lions allow the opposing QB to set a franchise record for TD's in a game. Nice.