The Supreme Court acted justly in Citizens v. FEC

Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission is somewhat of a landmark decision.  The Supreme Court ruled that it is unconstitutional to restrict campaign spending by corporations.  It seems that many on the left are very angry about this, saying that corporations will run the country.  But I'm sure that unions are just as happy about this, and we all know how they vote.

The bigger picture is that this is a victory for the freedom of speech, and freedom of speech includes paying for that speech.  The government has absolutely no right to tell anyone (or any corporation) how they can donate money to political campaigns.  When speech is restricted in anyway, it brings us down an Orwellian path, in which the government has a bigger role in deciding the type of information that can be disseminated.

In this case, it was about an anti Hillary Clinton movie being banned, but next time it could easily be an anti-GOP movie.  The bottom line is that people deserve to be heard.

DC Area Bicycling Laws Need Improvement

Greater Greater Washington has a list of 12 ideas that could make bicycling safer in this area.  I agree with most of these, especially #'s 1, 8 and 11.  I can't believe that VA, MD, and DC still have contributory negligence; how rediculous.

And as for #11, I generally already treat a stop sign as a yield, and a red light as a stop sign.

FHA imposes new standards - house prices to plummet?

Today the FHA has proposed new underwriting standards.

For those of you who do not know how an FHA loan works, here is the gist:
If you want a house, but don't have much of a down payment, or you have bad credit, the federal government will guarantee your loan.  A normal bank still issues it.  In return, you pay private mortage insurance (PMI), have a somewhat higher interest rate.  But almost everyone gets approved and the down payment is 3.5%.

The changes being proposed could end a lot of this easy money lending.  First of all, a minimum credit score of 580 will be required for 3.5% down payments, otherwise you'll need 10%.  This won't deter too many, in my opinion, because if you have a score of lower than 580 it is doubtful you are currently in the market for a house.

Here are the changes you need to pay attention to:

1. A .5% increase in PMI.  This means that a $300,000 house will require $1500 more up front, plus an extra $125 per month payment.  This is pretty substantial.
2. Worse yet: a reduction in seller concessions from 6% to 3%.  This is a huge deal.  On a $300,000 house that would mean $9,000!  This covers a lot of the (ridiculous) fees that realtors, mortgage brokers, and settlement companies charge.

I predict that home prices could easily fall 3-5% if all of the US or more in places that have a lot of FHA loans.  But overall this is a good thing, because homes are still mostly overvalued.

Revisiting the healthcare odds post MA election

In my last post, I predicted that healthcare had a 65% chance of passing.  With the election of Scott Brown, this would give us about a 30% chance of healthcare passing in its current form.

There are a few ways healthcare could still pass soon:

1. The House can pass the Senate version of the bill, bypassing the need for a revote in the senate
2. It will take 15 days to certify the vote, per MA state law.  Congress could reconcile and vote within that time frame.
3. Come up with a compromise with the GOP, or a bill that is good enough that while the GOP won't vote for it, at least 1-2 in the Senate would vote to break a filibuster.  

I think that option 1 is a bit more likely, as much as I detest the Senate bill.  Why do I dislike it so much?  It does a fair amount of damage to the best healthcare plans out there: HSA's.  My HSA costs me $10 a month to cover two people.  I also set aside several thousand per year into a tax advantaged account that I can use to pay the up to $4,000 deductible.  What the senate version of the bill would do is prevent me from spending my HSA dollars on over the counter medicines, and also double the penalty if I withdraw funds early.

What I'm hoping is that options 2 or 3 are in play, especially 3, since some bipartisanship could go a long way toward preserving some good things about the current system (like HSA's) while possibly also fixing some of the other problems that the first bill is silent on (like tort reform).

Odds of healthcare reform passing

The special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat vacated when Senator Kennedy passed away, threatens to block healthcare reform.  It is looking increasingly likely that the GOP candidate will win, the race is basically a tossup.

If the GOP candidate wins, republicans would have 41 votes in the senate, enough to enact a filibuster, a stupid procedure that effectively requires a super majority rule.  There is always the so-called "nuclear option" which would attempt to end a filibuster on a majority vote.  This goes against the historical senate rules, however none of this, including the filibuster itself, is described in the Constitution.  Anything goes.

I am also a bit angry with the latest change to the final bill, which will exempt union members from a tax on "Cadillac" plans.  This is discriminatory and should not be in the final bill, but it seems it was necessary to cater to Big Labor to get the bill to pass.

Here's how I handicap it:

• 50% chance of Democrats keeping control of the senate.
• If they keep control, 95% chance that healthcare reform passes.
• 50% chance of the GOP winning in MA.  
• If this happens, 30% chance that it takes a longtime to seat the new senator, long enough that healthcare passes.
• 70% chance that the winner is seated soon enough that they can vote against healthcare, and in that case I'd give this bill a 5% chance of succeeding.

All in all, this leads to a 64.5% chance of healthcare reform passing.  Decent odds, but not great.

Good news for free speech

Google just stuck up its middle finger at Communist China by declaring that it will no longer censor its search results within the country.

I think a likely outcome will be that Google is banned in China, but hopefully this will usher in a new wave of free speech movements within China, with the end goal of stopping censorship.  Only time will tell.

For Profit Schools a bad deal for everyone

This expose on online education for-profit universities should make anyone think twice about attending University of Phoenix or other for profit universities.

When it comes to for-profit vs. non profit, note the average salary of University of Maryland University College (online, NON-profit) vs. Phoenix (online, FOR profit).  The difference is quite staggering.

The reason for lower quality education makes sense.  A for profit school is probably going to have a higher student/faculty ratio and less qualified instructors (they cost more).  State supported non profits, such as UMUC are basically normal universities that offer a lot of courses online.

The article also implies that for profit schools are ripping off the taxpayers.  This is a PR nightmare for Phoenix, Strayer, and their ilk.  Why go to a for profit school that costs more and provides less return?

Studios last ditch power grab

Warner Bros is forcing Netflix customers to wait 28 days before renting movies that the studio produces.  I think this is ridiculous, and it won't last for long.  People are not going to rush out and buy DVD's.

Very few people feel the need to own movies, with the exceptions for movies that are watched often.  In my case, this may be 3-5 total movies.  With music, people can listen to a song multiple times a day, so ownership makes sense.  But the public has made it pretty clear that they are content to rent movies, and Netflix has come out on top.

I predict that customers are going to complain big time to Netflix and possibly the studios.  With the only option to buy the movie (its not like you can walk into a Blockbuster anymore, with most of them closed) or wait 28 days, I'll wait 28 days.

Decade Wrap-Up

We stand at the end of the "naughts" or "double o's".  The 00's.  Whatever you want to call them, it is ending.  The period of 2000-2009 was much more turbulent for me than 1990-1999.  I think most would agree that this decade was especially unique.

2000 started with a United States election that many thought (and continue to think) was rigged.  Our new president in 2001 faced the largest terrorist attack ever only 9 months into his job and spend the rest of his administration over-reacting to that one day, 9/11/01.  That singular day may define the decade more than any other, because much of the United States' budget and standing within the world for the next decade will likely be affected by the reaction to September 11 (including Iraq, which was sold to the public as a reaction to 9/11).

On a more positive note, technology made leaps and bounds.  Broadband has become the standard way of connecting for the middle class, and I suspect, much of the lower class.  Smart phones continue to show tremendous growth, and I doubt that anyone will have a "dumb phone" in 2015.  Social networks have also taken off big, which allows us to stay in touch with others from our past.

And finally, only about 40 years after massive race riots hit the United States, we elected our first African American president: Barack Obama.

What will the teens bring?  Hopefully less war, better tech, and more money for all.

Duke Nukem

Great article on Duke Nukem Forever, the king of vaporware and any software developer's nightmare.

Only a few steps left for healthcare bill

The healthcare bill has passed an initial vote in the senate, and will likely be passed by the senate in full soon this week.  This bill is far from perfect, but would provide a large number of people with healthcare.  It would also limit pre-existing conditions (and eliminate them for children immediately).  It is definitely a step in the right direction.

Grad School Bubble?

Both of these articles make convincing arguments, that the high cost and modest rewards simply are not worth it for aspiring MBA's and JD's.  Is grad school, or education in general, the next bubble?

I think so, but I think that the rapid rise in online education will reign in costs to a point at which a decent quality education is attainable to anyone, not just the rich or those who want to be in debt up to their eyeballs.

MBA: http://www.economist.com/theworldin/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14742624&d=2010

Law: http://lawyerist.com/law-school-admissions-bubble/

More on Grass Fed Bison

Even though Wegmans provided a great response to my questions, I decided to ask the supplier, Great Range Bison, about what goes into their bison.  Here is their response.  It is interesting to note that they are audited by Whole Foods.  Bottom line: it is still probably the best red meat you can buy.

Our buffalo are fed grain as well as grass the last 120 days prior to butchering.  The buffalo are not fed the levels of grain that cattle are during typical cattle feed lot programs.  We do this to produce a premier, high quality, fresh product year round.  It would impossible to produce consistent product given variations in weather patterns, geographic areas, grass species, and seasonal changes that affect grass quality. 

 

By supplemental feeding we are referring to the natural grains and forages that we feed in order to supplement what the animal can't get from pasture feeding. We do not use any antibiotics, hormones or animal by-products on any of the bison. They are raised as naturally as possible. In order to produce a consistent product year round it is necessary that we feed additional forage and grain prior to slaughter - i.e. supplemental feeding.

 

The Bison Meat is still much leaner than beef!

 

All buffalo calves are born in pasture and spend most of their lives in a free range situation.  They are humanely raised on wide open ranches of the Western United States.  We DO NOT have animals in traditional feedlots!  We purchase our buffalo from several different areas; Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, South Dakota, North Dakota, New Mexico and Oklahoma are just a few of the places. 

 

All ranches and plants are audited by Whole Foods to ensure animal safety.

 

Thank you for your interest in our company and let us know if you have any other questions.

No Grass Fed Bison?

I'm a fan of bison meat.  If i'm going to eat something bovine in nature, its going to be a bison (not technically a buffalo, those are only found in Asia).  The meat itself tastes better and is much leaner.

However, when I was at Wegman's I looked up the supplier of their bison and read on their website that it is "grain fed".  I prefer grass fed meat when I eat it.  I asked Wegman's about their choice of suppliers.  Here is their response, supposedly from one of their buyers:

"There is really no such thing as grass fed meat in America. This is because there is no source for fresh grass in the winter. U.S. grass fed claims are false in that dried hay or dried grass is fed or worse they are left to forage through the snow for what little brush they can find. Bison are not put on feedlots they are given a ration that consists of 60% grain (corn, oats, milo, barley and wheat are all used depending on what is available to the particular ranch) and 40% grass only in the final 110 days or so of their 800-900 day lives. They do this to improve the eating quality of the meat and to give the consumer a consistent, high quality product year round. They do not get the levels of grain fed to beef and so do not get as fat. The animals spend far more of their lives"out" than "in". There is a huge difference between the nutrients in fresh grass and dried grass. Imagine if you went to a restaurant for a salad and they gave you dried lettuce. For truly grass fed beef that is leaner than bison and processed in state of the art facilities, we offer Organic grass fed Angus / Herford beef from Uruguay. We went 7,000 miles south to find a place that had fresh grass all year to substantiate our grass fed claim. The USDA allows hay fed animals to be called grass fed but this was in my opinion not correct to do." 

Review: Inglorious Basterds

Inglorious Basterds is a great movie, one that I would recommend to any fan of Quentin Tarantino, or of action/western type movies with great dialogue.  I don't want to give too much away, but the premise is a group of American Jewish soldiers who want to kill as many Nazis as possible during World War II.  Brad Pitt is their leader.  Need I say more?

I give it 5 stars.