It is interesting to look at the two graphs linked above to see which states switch sides depending on who is nominated.
In my home state of Virginia, for instance, Obama has a very, very slim lead over McCain, but McCain would win big over Clinton. This result makes sense to me as Virginia is a very educated state and educated voters flock to Obama by a much higher rate than the blue-collar loving Clinton.
Jersey, PA, WV, all would vote for McCain over Obama, but Clinton over McCain. These are mostly Rust Belt states that are still pretty racist against a black candidate (as for NJ, its just a strange result and overall a close matchup either way).
My former home state of MI would back McCain over Clinton and Obama over McCain, which I can't really explain since it is similar in demographics to Ohio.
True to form, Obama does much better out west than Clinton, winning Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Colorado, North Dakota, and the midwestern states of North Dakota, and Iowa while Clinton would lose all of these. She makes up for that by winning Florida and Arkansas (where her husband was governor).
This poll is out very early in the game, and after the democratic nominee is chosen it will likely change. Right now a lot of Clinton supporters will tell a pollster they will vote for McCain just to prove their point, but if Obama was elected they would probably endorse him over George W Bush's third term.
One conclusion that can be drawn from these polls is that Obama seems to have appeal over much more of the country geographically than Clinton does.
1 comment:
I can agree with the figures. It was interesting.
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