2008-05-10

Upcoming Primary: WV

Hillary Clinton likes to tout her advantage among "hard-working" Americans.  I'm not quite sure what hard-working means, but she's said many times that the people of West Virginia fall into this group.

I think we could agree that people who work harder than average would be more likely to produce more goods and services.  To wit, we can look at the GDP of West Virginia in comparison to the rest of the United States.  I looked up the GDP per capita (per person) for the state, and found that it was 2nd to last, ahead of only Mississippi.  

That means that the people in WV produce less goods and services than 48/50 states (and less than DC).  Hard-working my ass.


Yet another reason to leave Iraq

The only way we can stay is if we keep paying Blackwater hundreds of millions of dollars to act as mercenaries in Iraq.  Blackwater is based in North Carolina and employers formal soldiers.  Its soldiers are paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per year, and are immune from any prosecution.  They can kill, rape, etc. and not get in trouble.  Last year they did just that, kill a bunch of innocent people.  No charges were filed.

Why?

Courtesy of the NYT:

"State Department officials said Friday that they did not believe they had any alternative to Blackwater, which supplies about 800 guards to the department to provide security for diplomats in Baghdad. Officials say only three companies in the world meet their requirements for protective services in Iraq, and the other two do not have the capability to take on Blackwater’s role in Baghdad. After the shooting in September, the State Department did not even open talks with the other two companies, DynCorp International and Triple Canopy, to see if they could take over from Blackwater, which is based in North Carolina.

“We cannot operate without private security firms in Iraq,” said Patrick F. Kennedy, the under secretary of state for management. “If the contractors were removed, we would have to leave Iraq.”
I think that last line says it all.



2008-05-09

Israel Turns 60

This week is the 60th anniversary of the founding of Israel.  Israel declared independence (mainly) from the British.  I don't take much stock in what's written in the Bible, as far as burning bushes, big floods, stuff like that.  It's pretty clear, however, that the Jewish religion started out there, and the followers of that religion are likely the first to have organized government there.  

Did people live in the land of Israel (ancient Palestine) before the Jews?  Of course.  Neanderthals and various early human tribes lived there, but it would be tough to call that a civilization.  Various tribes became more advanced, such as the Canaanites, but these were still polytheistic religions that were generally organized into city-states.  These early tribes and their beliefs eventually evolved into Judaism, which would be the dominant monotheistic religion until Christianity broke away.

Enough with the religion.  Bottom line: Israel was settled by the Jews, who formed the civilization, built the temples, etc.  This fact, and not the Bible, is the strongest reason why the Jewish people should lay claim to the land, just as the Chinese and Japanese can lay claim to their land.  

Besides the Jews, others have also controlled Israel, such as the Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, etc.  But the Jews were the originals, so the Arab claim to Israel is about as valid as the Italian (Roman) claim.  The only difference is that they live closer by.  So maybe its like the French wanting a piece of Germany.

So 60 years ago, Israel achieved its independence from the British and many Jews who were displaced by WWII and holocaust survivors found a new place to call home.  

The root of the current turmoil is that the British and United Nations were very weak and unable to keep the peace, so skirmishes broke out that continue to this day.

Since 1948, Israel has survived countless bombings, wars, and international condemnation.  Israel remains the only truly civilized country in the Middle East.  The fact that Israel has stood the test of time by not only surviving, but prospering in spite of being surrounded by hostile forces gives a legitimacy to the country that is even more persuasive than a religious text.

As with any other country, Israel is not perfect.  Its form of government, the parliament system, is conducive to a revolving door of leaders.  Israel has alternated between left and right wing governments 8 times since 1948.  It would be going overboard to say that the government is unstable, but the styles of leadership can vary greatly, such as a switch from a Benjamin Netanyahu (think Dick Cheney) to Ehud Barak (think Jimmy Carter).  These changes can make it difficult to broker peace agreements.  Of course, the other side is much, much worse when it comes to its leaders.

Israel is now the only true democracy in the region and an important ally of the United States.  We know that Israel would likely stop any threat (like Iran) before it got out of control.  They are the night watchman of the Middle East.  However, these close ties between the US and Israel can be problematic.  When Israel kills Arab civilians, some of the anger gets directed at the US.  Likewise, when we invaded Iraq, some of the anger got sent to Israel.  

Israel should continue on its own course.  We must remember that it is a young country, much younger than the United States and that perfection is something that no country will ever achieve.  

Happy birthday Israel.

The trickle is becoming a stream...

...and will soon be a wave.  Obama picked up 9 supers today.  Clinton got 1, maybe 2.  

This thing should be officially over in 2 weeks.

An affair at the White House

Interestingly enough, it happened before Clinton got in to office.

McCain's backroom land deal

Trading campaign contributions for legislation is not ethical.  Looks like Mr. Ethics just took a hit.

2008-05-08

Age is one issue McCain should fear

Today Barack Obama said the McCain is "losing his bearings" as he pursues his nomination, meaning that he is becoming more of a hardcore conservative who uses negative attacks on his opponents to placate the neocon goons.  

McCain's campaign, instead of just being quiet, does the worst possible thing: they said that Obama is now unfairly attacking McCain's age.  

First, let's start with the facts.

Obama said that McCain is "losing his bearings" not "losing his marbles."  One of them relates to his politics, the other to his age.  Obama did not insult his age.  But age is an issue.  

If elected president, McCain would be 72 years, 4 months, and 22 days old on inauguration day.  For comparisons, Ronald Reagan was just a few days shy of his 70th birthday.  

The average age of onset for Alzheimer's is 72.8 years.  

Despite the fact that his mother is still alive and in her 90's, women live longer than men.  His father died at 70 years old, and his grandfather died at 61.

McCain would be the oldest elected president ever, and I think that is not something we can afford in this world.

Is Hillary Delusional or trying to help Obama?

With all the twists and turns this election has taken, you would think this could be a pitch for a new soap opera.  At least, that's what the media has led us to believe.  Truth is, Obama locked up this win with the streak of victories after Super Tuesday, it's just that the media is finally coming to the reality that every contest has a loser.


Many commentators think that Hillary is just plain nuts.  She's lent her campaign millions of dollars, is using Huckabee-esque math to make her case, and says she won't stop til she's in the White House again.  Doesn't matter that the math won't work out, she'll just steal that election, even by including states that broke the rules.  On the surface she sure as hell seems crazy.

But I don't think she's crazy.

For the first time, I actually see a plan within her campaign to unite the party around Obama.  The whole "tie breaker" comment about Indiana was just a cheap jab, I don't think she believes it except in the context that she won 2 out of the 3 last states.

If she drops out now and just fades back into the Senate, her supporters will be left twisting in the wind, especially those in places like WV and KY who haven't voted yet (who cares about PR, they don't count).  Most will reluctantly follow Obama.  But about 25-30% of them will either not vote or vote for McCain.  And many of these defectors are in PA, OH and other swing states.  The Dems really need these states, and possibly FL to win in November.  Hillary knows this.  Obama knows this.  

If she closes out WV and KY, let's those people give her a big win, she at least allows them to feel that they are a part of something.  Her efforts to bring FL and MI back into the mix would bring back some goodwill.  If they are not seated at the convention, I believe that FL will definitely be lost.  If she helps pass something through that gives them some kind of delegate mix (maybe half the delegates) they will at least feel that their party did not let them down.  

After winning WV and KY, getting FL and MI involved in the process, it will be time for Hillary to step down.  This will happen in early June and it will probably be a "suspension" of the campaign, much like Edwards, not a formal concession.  But between now and then she needs to stop all negative attacks on Obama, ramp up her attack dog style attacks on McCain, and gradually fade into an advisor type role to the party.

I think that this is her ultimate plan, because if she does not do this her senate career could be toast.  Destroying Obama will not help her in 4 years, even if McCain wins, but in 8 years she'll still be barely young enough to run for president.  

Or I could be completely wrong: she's nuts and she's taking this thing to the convention floor.  But I hope I'm right.  Is that audacious?  

2008-05-07

Hillary's Broke

News reports are coming in now that she loaned her campaign an additional $6.4 million this past month.  Add that to the $5 million she loaned herself several months ago.  Add that to the $10M in debt she has.  Part of that is owed to her former campaign manager, who ran her campaign into the ground.
 
She spent what little cash she had in a wasted campaign in NC.
 
To all of the Hillary supporters out there: Do you really want us to elect a president who can't manager her own campaign finances?

2008-05-06

Obama wins big

NC is going to be a double-digit win for Obama.

Indiana is going to be very, very close.  Clinton and her backers projected a huge win for her here.

Its time for Hillary to drop out.

2008-05-05

NIN releases free CD

Today Nine Inch Nails released a totally free CD today.  Trent Reznor has been trying his damnedest to say "fuck you" to the record labels.  Last year he told people in Australia to "steal my album" because of the overpricing.  So now he just bypasses the labels and allows you to download his albums, 100% free and 100% legal.

I haven't listened to the whole thing yet, but so far The Slip sounds pretty good. 

It can be downloaded here.

Happy Cinco de Mayo!


Cinco de Mayo is truly an American holiday.  Before you go all Lou Dobb's on me, let me state my case.

The Cinco de Mayo celebration is largely an American invention.  It is only celebrated in one small state of Mexico, to mark the defeat of Spanish troops in battle.  It is not celebrated much anywhere else in the country.

Us gringos, however, have made it our own.  Everything from Corona's to churros to tequila flows today.  We dress up in stupid Mexican hats, use Spanish words, etc.  We have made that culture our own.  Which we probably should, since a sizable minority of Americans have Mexican heritage.


An answer to organ shortages

$47,000 per kidney.  Why not?  It would help some people get out of poverty and help others live.  Doctors already make money when a kidney is "donated" so why shouldn't the patient.
 
On another note, MAKE SURE YOUR DRIVER'S LICENSE SAY THAT YOU DONATE ORGANS.  There is absolutely no reason (other than you have AIDS) to not donate your organs.  All religions approve of it, and you could save people's lives.  Do the right thing.

2008-05-04

John McCain's not the only idiot on the economy

Several months ago, John McCain famously said that he "doesn't really understand economics."  

At least he was open to getting some good advisors.

Today, Hillary Clinton was asked if her "gas tax holiday" proposal had the support of any economists.  She could not name a single one.  

This is the same gas tax that McCain has proposed in the past, but he's not pushing it quite so hard these days, probably because it has already failed to pass in the senate, and he's leaving it up to the dems to fight it out.

Economists have pointed out the same things that I have:
Consumers will likely drive more if the tax isn't there, due to psychological reasons, which will make prices go back up, likely higher than they were before.  So the tax would likely raise gas prices.