Superbowl XLII: My unqualified prediction

NYG 34, NWE 31

Mahoo! will still suck

Microsoft has just announced it seeks to buy Yahoo! for a large sum of money, much more than Yahoo! is currently worth, $41 billion.  Microsoft is making this bid in order to compete with the big swinging dick of internet services, Google (who also hosts this blog, a lot of my documents, my email, and other things I use on a daily basis).  

Microsoft finally figured out than MSN sucks and needed to improve it.  Their thinking is that Yahoo! is a great name and has some great services.  I disagree.

Yahoo! has two things going for it.  Fantasy sports and Flickr.  Yahoo is the #1 site for fantasy sports of all kind.  I use it.  They have the best interface and it is very easy to use.  Flickr is a great tool for sharing photos, I have experimented with it.  There are some less known apps that I use, like http://del.icio.us but other than that Yahoo! is a dead search engine.  Google is the king and MSN + Yahoo! is proving that two wrongs don't make a right.

To most people this deal does not mean too much, me included.  I think that this new Mahoo! could entice Google to pair with Apple, another independent company that they already have a relationship with.  

Half the world in the dark

Due to a cable being cut in the Mediterranean, the bandwidth of most of Asia has been reduced to a trickle.  While many of us think of the internet as a point to point connection between computers (which it can be), the majority of traffic between continents is routed through underseas fiber optic cables that can carry extremely large amounts of data.

The internet isn't just for WWW-dot-something-dot-com anymore.  The bandwidth carried on these lines includes cable TV, phone traffic, and any other type of data.  International calls used to be mainly carried by satellite, but nobody liked the echo and using broadband is much, much cheaper (if not free, see www.skype.com).  

So we've got half the world without good online access.  Does that affect us?  Of course.  If you didn't get the memo, the world is flat.  When you are calling Dell because your PC broke, that's routed over those lines to India or the Philippines.  Even calling the local pizza store is now often routed overseas.  A good portion of our business is done with the developing Asian market, and speaking of the market, having the Dubai stock exchange process data at an alarmingly slow rate does not help our situation here either.

The big question now is what caused this cable (actually, 2 cables) to break?  The first thing that comes to mind is terrorism.  Cyber terrorism has happened before and will probably happen again.  Last year Russians attacked Estonia's network with DOS attacks, making almost every computer and ATM inoperable in the country.

I think it is very unlikely that this was a terrorist attack.  First, while a lot of economic damage was done, it was done to many, many countries.  This was not a targeted attack.  And the only country in the Middle East that was left largely unaffected was Israel, who would be the logical target.  Unless this was Israel's way of fighting back, which I think is unlikely.

The culprit behind this problem was most likely some type of boat who dropped anchor at the wrong place, or just a lack of maintenance with the cables.  At any rate, it is fascinating to see how much of our world's communication network is carried along by one simple pipe.

It's All Over For Rudy

Rudy Giuliani is all but officially done with his 2008 presidential campaign.  John McCain and Mitt Romney battled for first place in Florida, Rudy's last stand.  He could have tried harder in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and other states.  Instead of getting his foot in the door early, he decided to wait until the door was locked and the race was down to 2-3 candidates, him not included.

It must be especially sad for him to lose in the delegates race to Ron Paul, a man he had fierce differences with early in the campaign.  I guess Ron gets the last laugh.

Unfortunately, Rudy is not done messing up our country.  He is now going to ask his supporters to stand behind John McCain, perhaps the only person who would be a scarier president than Rudy.

State of the Union 2008

I am composing this post while watching the State of the Union, January 28, 2008.

9:04 Bush is introduced to "Madame Speaker" Nancy Pelosi, a deplorable woman.  He dolls out the usual handshakes with the senators who wait a long time to shake his hand.

9:05 Noticed that Barack Obama and Ted Kennedy are seated next to each other.  Kennedy formally endorsed Obama today.

9:09 Bush extolling philosophy of individualism.  "We must trust in the ability of free peoples to make wise decisions and empower them...we must trust people with their own money..."

9:12 He's jumping to the economy pretty quickly.  Tax reliefs and the economy appear to be the big issues tonight.  Already has talked about the impending delays of his tax relief plan in the Senate and encourages them to pass it quickly.

9:15 "Others have said they would glady pay higher taxes, I welcome their enthusiasm.  Let them know that the IRS takes checks and money orders."  The democrats aren't laughing.  It is obvious that he is trying to paint the democrats as the party of taxes (which is partly true) while promising to veto any tax increase (what's new?).

9:16 151 wasteful programs will be eliminated, saving $18B.  Killing medicare would save 100 times that.  

9:17 A promise to veto any bill where the earmarks have not been cut in half.  Cut the pork.

9:18 Wide applause.  Fed agencies will not enforce any earmark that was not openly debated.  Even Obama was clapping.

9:19 Tax free bonds to help refinance mortgages?  First I've heard of this.

9:20 Healthcare - "expand consumer choice, not government control."  Obama isn't clapping.

9:21 No child left behind act is brought up.  Bush claims that test scores are going up, especially blacks and hispanics.  This is because kids are taught the test!  The dems don't seem to like it too much.

9:22 $300M program - Pell Grants for kids.  Sounds like a voucher that doesn't remove money from the public schools.  Bullshit.

9:24 Wants more aid to Colombia, "our friends who fight against terror."

9:26 "emissions free nuclear power" got a mixed response.  Do the democrats not understand that it is one of the cleanest and most efficient sources of power?

9:28 More funding for the skin-stem cells.

9:30 Empower justices who look at what the Constitution says.  Amen!

9:32 Entitlement spending time... "massive tax increases or cuts in benefits" are in our future.  Very true.  

9:34 Secure the borders!!!  Too bad that it doesn't work very well.  Have we really doubled the number of border patrol agents?  I think most of them are in Iraq.

9:36 Democracy throughout the world are not always the best thing.  The Palestinians elected Hamas.

9:37 Definition of terrorist: "Evil men who despise freedom."

9:39 He finally brings up Afghanistan, the forgotten war.  We are sending 3,200 marines there.

9:40 Here comes word of the successes of "The Surge."  

9:42 Results in Iraq?  What results?  Shifting violence?  Chaos in 2 small areas instead of 1 large?

9:44 Al-qaeda's "sanctuaries" in Iraq.  Another link from Al Qaeda to Iraq.  Never existed before we got there.

9:45 He mentioned Osama!!!  I thought this name would not be uttered tonight, as its a major failure to not string him up.  Bush claims Osama says that we are stepping up forces in Iraq and making it difficult.  

9:47 Next phase in our strategy is to partner with Iraq instead of leading.  We will then be the overseers, like a master over his slaves.

9:50 Will a free Iraq necessarily help us?  Will a non-free Iraq be a stage to attack America?  Now comes the part about them following us home.  Some commander in Al-Qaeda said he wants to attack Washington.  What does that have to do with Iraq?

9:51 Calls for a separate Palestinian state by the end of this year.  A democratic Israel and a democratic Palestine.  Probably would be better than the status quo.

9:53 Here comes the call for war with Iran.  According to GWB: they are fucking with us in Iraq, Lebanon, and Israel.  We love your people, but "we will defend our vital interests (oil) in the Persian Golf."  And put a boot in your ass too.

9:55 Bush wants Congress to pass libility protection for companies that help spy on you.  WHAT FUCKING BULLSHIT.  He is saying if Verizon listens in on your call, and you were doing nothing wrong, and because of their listening you get fucked with by the authorities, you can sue NO ONE.  BULL FUCKING SHIT.

"our nation will prosper, our liberty will be secured, and the state of our union will be strong."

Final phrase count:

9/11: 3

Terror/terrorism/terrorist: 19+

Al-Qaeda: 11

Osama: 1

Final Bush State of the Union

Tonight at 9pm is George W. Bush's final state of the union address.

Many pundits feel that this will be his "legacy" speech in which he will reflect upon all of the good that he did for our country in the last 8 years.  That would shape up to be a very small speech.  

Fiscal conservatives, such as myself, who voted for him in 2004 have been deeply disappointed.  

One of the main reasons that I voted for Bush was that I hoped he would free me from the pyramid scheme that is Social Security.  He floated several proposals before the (republican controlled, until 2006) Congress, but they were reluctant to anger the old people, who would probably not have been affected and would be dead before the next election anyway.  So that's 0 for 1 on what's important to me.

The second reason I voted for GWB was the promise he made to simplify the tax code.  This re-engineering did not happen, probably because greedy accountants and H&R Block lobbied to keep the tax code as complex as possible.  The tax code is most likely more complex than it was 4 years ago.  So that's 0 for 2.

Finally, there was some hope that Bush would work to control spending.  The only bit we've seen of that has been him vetoing the health care for kids, which I support.

Ron Paul Damaged the LP (and that's a bad thing)

In 2006 the Democrats were re-elected to Congress during the midterm elections.  For the first time in a decade, the Democrats had control of the House and Senate.  Elected in a charge to end the War in Iraq, rein in out of control spending by George W. Bush, and perhaps save America's reputation and our economy.  As I predicted, they failed in all of these tasks.  

Many voters had already lost faith in the Republican party.  It was assured that many more would lose their faith in the Democrats within a year.  It looked to be a very good 2008 election for the Libertarian Party, the Party of Principle, the party who focuses on controlling spending, on ending the war, on restoring freedom to America.  In early 2007, Ron Paul announced that he would be running for president.

And that fucked everything up.

Instead of having a viable Third Party to throw our money behind, pass out pamphlets for, and tell our friends about, we were left with Ron Paul.  There is nothing wrong with Ron Paul, except that he is only one man, he is firmly committed to standing behind the Republican Party, and he probably won't be running in the 2012 election.

Libertarians will always be around.  Freedom is a common cause and when American's learn what we are for they generally will support at least some of our viewpoints, if not more than they would for the other two parties.

The Libertarian Party was founded in the early 1970's and has fielded a presidential candidate ever since.  Sometimes the LP does good in the polls, in other times very poorly.  I predict that this year will be a bad year for the LP in the nationwide race.  Ron Paul has taken a lot of the money that typically is donated to the LP and has taken the spotlight away from any LP candidates that could emerge.

There would be no problem with this situation if Ron Paul were leading in the polls; I am sorry to say that he is not.  What this means is that we could be left with a nightmare McCain/Obama scenario with no Third Party candidate that we recognize.

I can only hope that Ron Paul has inspired a new generation of Americans to vote for freedom and that these individuals will be drawn to the LP once this campaign cycle is over.  Only time will tell.

The positive note is that the LP seems to be capitalizing somewhat on the Democrats losses by fielding a lot of local candidates.

For more information on the LP, visit www.lp.org

Disclaimer: I have donated to the Ron Paul campaign

A costly win for Obama?

Barack Obama won South Carolina today by a large margin, getting double the vote of Hillary Clinton and 3 times John Edwards's total.  

I believe that this win came at a cost though, as the majority of Obama's votes came from African Americans.  To have a campaign that's focused on saying "race does not matter", race obviously does matter, because Obama would have lost SC if only whites had voted.  I think that this may scare some white voters who planned on supporting Obama.

The next big voting day is Tuesday, Feb 5.  On Super Tuesday states all accross the country will vote.  As many have pointed out, a lot of these states have large Hispanic populations and more than white people, they are generally loathe to support African Americans, a minority that they have been competing with for the #2 spot in America for the last several decades.