2008-06-14

Obama Landslide in November?

Poblano, the pollsters who was closer than the big guys in predicting the primaries, has a website: www.fivethirtyeight.com

A baseball statistician by day, he lives on statistics and looks for movements in the data compared to historical numbers.  He has recently included data from the last 20 or so years into his model.  He then runs 10,000 computer simulations of election days.  Based on this, it looks like McCain is in for some pain.  He predicts a 30% chance of an Obama landslide, in which he would get 70%+ of the electoral vote.  McCain only has 10% chance of that happening.

Overall, Obama wins 65% of the time.  It also looks like my homestate of VA is a toss up, and right now is leaning blue.

Why I'm Voting Republican (Video)

This made me laugh.

2008-06-13

Tim Russert dead at 58

Tim Russert passed away today at the age of 58 from an apparent heart attack.  

He was a great political reporter, the moderator of Meet the Press, and was always a neutral voice on any program.  He will be dearly missed by anyone familiar with his work.

2008-06-12

Out with a whimper, but there's still life in Ron Paul

Ron Paul ended his campaign tonight. Everyone, including me, has forgotten about him.

He started off very strong, winning a lot of grassroots support, and raising a boatload of money. Despite all of this, Paul's campaign failed. The reason for this is probably Paul himself. He did not become very active in his own campaign and let disorganized supporters handle much of it.

Despite this, Ron Paul was able to propogate his message. He wants to continue his path, and has launched a new website: www.campaignforliberty.com

I have signed up. Have you?

Habeas Corpus Remains

Today in a 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court rule that the "enemy combatants" in Guantanemo deserve to be tried in a real court, not a kangaroo court in Cuba.  

Habeas Corpus is an ancient doctrine that basically says a person must be brought to a real court, presented with real charges, and a decision must be made as to whether the person should remain in custody.

Abraham Lincoln suspended the write of Habeas Corpus during the Civil War to hold Confederates in the Union without bringing them to trial.

It was wrong then, and it is wrong now.  If these are truly bad people we have in Guantanemo (and I'm not convinced that all of them are bad, since many of them were given to us by other dictators they pissed off), then there should be no issues with bringing them to trial.  A country should not be afraid to take people to a real courtroom, not a military tribunal, if it really believes that the said persons committed crimes.  

This ruling is an important victory for Liberty, since the government was on a slippery slope of being able to detain anyone, including American citizens, and keeping them locked up forever without a trial.

I have long been against holding these people without a trial.  If it is proven that they killed Americans, we should execute them.  But every person deserves the right to a fair trial, and this is what we were denying.

Sorry Bush, sorry McBush, oops I mean McCain.  You aren't above the law anymore.

2008-06-11

Mac, PC, or stupid?

When it comes to John McCain, he knows about as much about computers as he does about the economy.  I understand he's a bit old, but if you want to run the country you need to show that you understand things that younger (and I'm talking under 60) understand, like how to click a mouse, how to send a email, and how to read my blog.




2008-06-10

Veterans Day Should be Election Day

This is a response to Roland Martin's recent article that election day should be a Saturday.

Election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Roland Martin believes that we should make it a Saturday, in order to give more people the opportunity to vote. While I am all for making election day more accessible to Americans, a Saturday in November just won't cut it.

Picking a weekend automatically disenfranchises religious voters. Orthodox Jews most likely would not be able to vote on any Saturday, no matter which month it is. Sundays are problematic for conservative Christians, for many of the same reasons.

Either day of the weekend is typically a day when the week's remaining affairs are taken care of, whether it be getting your haircut, buying a new pair of shoes, or cutting your lawn. Weekends are not made for going out and doing your civic duty; we are Americans after all and we value our leisure.

For that reason, I propose Veterans day as election day. For one, all federal and state employees have the day off, as do all bank employees and many others. It always falls in November (currently the closest weekday to November 11) and it could easily be standardized to a Monday or Tuesday.

Why not combine one of America's forgotten federal holiday's with our democracy. Our veterans fought in many wars to give us the liberty to choose our representatives in government and tying election day with our military tradition would add a lot to both holidays.

2008-06-09

TSA punishes protests

To all you privacy advocates:

It is still OK to travel without ID, even on an airplane.  You just have to tell the TSA officer that you lost it.  As part of TSA's new policy, people who willfully refuse to show ID will not be allowed to board.  Others will.  

Could be a fun policy to test, but who'd want to get stuck in the airport.

2008-06-08

No Upset at the French Open

Despite being ranked lower (#2) than his opponent, Rafael Nadal easily beat Roger Federer (#1) today in straight sets at the French Open for his fourth win in a row.  He has now beat Federer 4 times at this event.

Federer is often considered the Tiger Woods of tennis, but he has yet to win at the French Open, mostly due to Nadal.