2008-05-08

Is Hillary Delusional or trying to help Obama?

With all the twists and turns this election has taken, you would think this could be a pitch for a new soap opera.  At least, that's what the media has led us to believe.  Truth is, Obama locked up this win with the streak of victories after Super Tuesday, it's just that the media is finally coming to the reality that every contest has a loser.


Many commentators think that Hillary is just plain nuts.  She's lent her campaign millions of dollars, is using Huckabee-esque math to make her case, and says she won't stop til she's in the White House again.  Doesn't matter that the math won't work out, she'll just steal that election, even by including states that broke the rules.  On the surface she sure as hell seems crazy.

But I don't think she's crazy.

For the first time, I actually see a plan within her campaign to unite the party around Obama.  The whole "tie breaker" comment about Indiana was just a cheap jab, I don't think she believes it except in the context that she won 2 out of the 3 last states.

If she drops out now and just fades back into the Senate, her supporters will be left twisting in the wind, especially those in places like WV and KY who haven't voted yet (who cares about PR, they don't count).  Most will reluctantly follow Obama.  But about 25-30% of them will either not vote or vote for McCain.  And many of these defectors are in PA, OH and other swing states.  The Dems really need these states, and possibly FL to win in November.  Hillary knows this.  Obama knows this.  

If she closes out WV and KY, let's those people give her a big win, she at least allows them to feel that they are a part of something.  Her efforts to bring FL and MI back into the mix would bring back some goodwill.  If they are not seated at the convention, I believe that FL will definitely be lost.  If she helps pass something through that gives them some kind of delegate mix (maybe half the delegates) they will at least feel that their party did not let them down.  

After winning WV and KY, getting FL and MI involved in the process, it will be time for Hillary to step down.  This will happen in early June and it will probably be a "suspension" of the campaign, much like Edwards, not a formal concession.  But between now and then she needs to stop all negative attacks on Obama, ramp up her attack dog style attacks on McCain, and gradually fade into an advisor type role to the party.

I think that this is her ultimate plan, because if she does not do this her senate career could be toast.  Destroying Obama will not help her in 4 years, even if McCain wins, but in 8 years she'll still be barely young enough to run for president.  

Or I could be completely wrong: she's nuts and she's taking this thing to the convention floor.  But I hope I'm right.  Is that audacious?  

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Hilary still thinks she'll win. She doesn't want Obama to win at all, at any costs.