Odds of healthcare reform passing

The special election in Massachusetts to fill the seat vacated when Senator Kennedy passed away, threatens to block healthcare reform.  It is looking increasingly likely that the GOP candidate will win, the race is basically a tossup.

If the GOP candidate wins, republicans would have 41 votes in the senate, enough to enact a filibuster, a stupid procedure that effectively requires a super majority rule.  There is always the so-called "nuclear option" which would attempt to end a filibuster on a majority vote.  This goes against the historical senate rules, however none of this, including the filibuster itself, is described in the Constitution.  Anything goes.

I am also a bit angry with the latest change to the final bill, which will exempt union members from a tax on "Cadillac" plans.  This is discriminatory and should not be in the final bill, but it seems it was necessary to cater to Big Labor to get the bill to pass.

Here's how I handicap it:

• 50% chance of Democrats keeping control of the senate.
• If they keep control, 95% chance that healthcare reform passes.
• 50% chance of the GOP winning in MA.  
• If this happens, 30% chance that it takes a longtime to seat the new senator, long enough that healthcare passes.
• 70% chance that the winner is seated soon enough that they can vote against healthcare, and in that case I'd give this bill a 5% chance of succeeding.

All in all, this leads to a 64.5% chance of healthcare reform passing.  Decent odds, but not great.