Revisiting the healthcare odds post MA election

In my last post, I predicted that healthcare had a 65% chance of passing.  With the election of Scott Brown, this would give us about a 30% chance of healthcare passing in its current form.

There are a few ways healthcare could still pass soon:

1. The House can pass the Senate version of the bill, bypassing the need for a revote in the senate
2. It will take 15 days to certify the vote, per MA state law.  Congress could reconcile and vote within that time frame.
3. Come up with a compromise with the GOP, or a bill that is good enough that while the GOP won't vote for it, at least 1-2 in the Senate would vote to break a filibuster.  

I think that option 1 is a bit more likely, as much as I detest the Senate bill.  Why do I dislike it so much?  It does a fair amount of damage to the best healthcare plans out there: HSA's.  My HSA costs me $10 a month to cover two people.  I also set aside several thousand per year into a tax advantaged account that I can use to pay the up to $4,000 deductible.  What the senate version of the bill would do is prevent me from spending my HSA dollars on over the counter medicines, and also double the penalty if I withdraw funds early.

What I'm hoping is that options 2 or 3 are in play, especially 3, since some bipartisanship could go a long way toward preserving some good things about the current system (like HSA's) while possibly also fixing some of the other problems that the first bill is silent on (like tort reform).